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USD/JPY Waiting for a Breakout

After a bullish breakout rally from 116.75 to 120.48, USD/JPY retreated and started to consolidate between 118.20 and 119.40. 

USD/JPY 4H Chart 2/23
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that there is still a slight bullish bias as price tries to hold above the moving averages, and has at least stayed above the 200-period SMA. The RSI has held above 40, which reflects maintenance of the prevailing bullish momentum. Therefore, a break above 119.45 would be a sign of bullish continuation at least in the short-term with pressure on 120.48, and with risk of extending higher toward the 121.70, 2014-high. Since the prevailing trend in the daily chart is also bullish, and intact, this scenario also carries risk of breaking above 121.70 in continuation of that trend, which started in 2011/2012.

USD/JPY Daily Chart 2/23
(click to enlarge)

If price breaks below 118.20, it would expose not only the 116.75 low, but also the triangle consolidation low seen in the daily chart around 115.56. Note that the trend is bullish, but there has been a medium-term consolidation since December. There was a break above this triangle, but a slide below 118.20, or 118, would suggest that the breakout was false. This would put pressure on the other side of consolidation, and threaten to extend the medium-term consolidation possible into further bearish correction.

A break below 115.50 can open up the 110 handle, where we see a previous resistance and the 200-day SMA.