The USD/JPY has been chugging along on a very sharp bullish trend. In the past couple of sessions however, we saw price fail to tag 104 and retreat to about 111.50. Let's take a look at the 1H chart.
USD/JPY 1H Chart 11/28
(click to enlarge)
- The bearish correction stretched just a tad under 111.50, basically testing a previous consolidation resistance. The fact that price bounced off it as support suggests bulls are still in charge.
- Furthermore, price held above the 200-hour simple moving average, which suggests that the bullish trend is still intact.
Bullish Continuation Scenario:
- The short-term bullish momentum has turned a bit bearish as the 1H RSI dipped below 30. We will have to see the RSI push above 60 to confirm return of bullish momentum. That has not happened yet.
- A break above 113.00 would be a strong indication of bullish continuation. This would likely accompany the RSI's push above 60.
- Also, a break above the projected falling resistance in the chart above would confirm bulls in control.
USD/JPY Daily Chart 11/28
Next Key Resistance:
- When we look at the daily chart, we should note that the RSI went above 80 and is coming back, which means the market saw that it was overbought and slowed down the bullish attempt.
- However, bulls are still in control, and in an uptrend, the market can stay overbought for a prolonged period of time.
- I think that in terms of price, USD/JPY will be challenged heavily around 115-115.50. We might already have some preemptive selling already under 114.
- 115-115.50 is a key support/resistance pivot area. While the market might not turn bearish, we can expect some selling in this area for a significant bearish correction.