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FOMC Holds Rate; USD Softens

Okay, so let's not be surprised that the Fed did not raise rates. The market has been pricing out of the rate cut in the past couple of months. As expected the FOMC held rates between 0 and 0.25%. Most likely it will consider raising rates in 2016. Perhaps the economy will pick up further after the holidays and give the FOMC more elbow space to raise rates. Right now, there is not enough wage growth and the threat of inflation is minimal.

Let's take a look at the USD/JPY 4H chart:
(click to enlarge)

The USD/JPY has been coiling into a triangle. It was rallying ahead of the FOMC decision, but retreated from the triangle resistance after the announcement of the rate-hold. There appears to be a strong reaction to the downside, and price is likely going to threaten the triangle support. 

If you think the market is surprised about this NON-hike, then you can expect a rapid dip towards 116.00. I think that dip to 117 in August was in fact part of the pricing out action, so I would limit the bearish outlook to 116. If you are short, or shorting this pair, consider scaling out in the 118-118.50 support area. I think the rate-hold will pressure the USD a bit in the short-term, but it should not be able to turn USD dovish against he JPY.

The market can prove me wrong if it slides under 116. But for now, I am anticipating some short-term bearish attempt to be followed by neutral price action which point I would be slightly bullish on the USD/JPY.