Antonio Arias
All posts from Antonio Arias
Antonio Arias in Daft Wonderworkers,

Volkswagen Domination Chokes on Exhausts

It is impossible to describe automotive industry without Volkswagen Group (VAG). It is a German multinational automotive manufacturing company headquartered in Wolfsburg, Lower Saxony, Germany. The group was found May 28, 1937 in Berlin. Volkswagen Group sells passenger cars under the Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini and Porsche marques. Commercial vehicles VAG sells under Scania, MAN, Neoplan and other brands. 

Table 1. Financial Performance

Here you can see that the sales revenue grew up from € 147,718 million in 2014 to € 160,263 million in Septeber 2015 but the growth of operating expenses by € 18,672 million reduced the operating profit by 35.5% in comparison with 2014. Also it is important to figure out that profit after tax fall from 8,687 million to 3,990 million which is linked to the automotive division loses. Wherefore the basic earnings per share (EPS) declined by 44,3% in 2015.

Table 2. ROI, EVA, ROE, WACC

By the way in 2014 the Return on investment (ROI) increased by 0.4% whereas the Return on equity (ROE) fall by 1.8% which figure us the profit reduction effect. The economic value added (EVA) gives us several reasons to think that from the economic point of view Volkswagen continues to develop its business, indeed Automotive.

The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) reduced in comparison with 2013. For instance, it is cheaper to engage capital for passenger cars by 6.5% instead of Power Engineering.

Chart 1. Daily Volkswagen and DAX Chart

On this chart we can see that VOW3 fall down from 169.65 in September 16, 2015 to 96.17 in November 11, 2015. The reasons for such fall are different. First of all, Volkswagen emission violations influenced on share price. Also VOW3 was impacted by concerns about China`s economic slowdown because China is one of the main markets for Volkswagen Group. Moreover VAG has twenty plants in China that is why VOW3, the DAX and economic growth in China are closely correlate with each other. That is why Volkswagen Group is an indicator of development of the whole German economy.

Chart 2. VOW Market and Real Values

This chart shows that shares of Volkswagen AG are undervalued by 71 per stock in 2015. There is no secrets that traders short VOW in case of its eco fail but it is a frontman of a German economy with different hybrid and other prospective projects and several signals show that it is a good chance to buy a cheap stock with huge potential.  

On the whole, we consider that Volkswagen shares is unappreciated now and it has a good potential for growth.