Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

EUR/GBP - Pending Breakout for the Bearish Continuation Scenario

Since marking a low on the year at 0.7014 in March, EUR/GBP has rebounded in a bullish correction until reaching 0.7384. 

EUR/GBP 4H Chart 4/10
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that the market eventually started trading sideways. Now that EUR/GBP has gone from a bullish correction to a neutral consolidation, what is next? Well, the prevailing trend heading into March was bearish, so the favored scenario at the moment is a continuation of that bearish trend. We have not seen a drastic change in monetary policy stance, so EUR/GBP should remain pressured at least towards the 0.7014 low if not lower. 

A break below 0.7220 would first open up the 0.7150-0.7175 support/resistance pivot area. Let's see what kind of pullback follows. A bearish market should not allow the pullback to climb back above 0.7275, and a break back above 0.73 would invalidate the bearish outlook, and put pressure back on the 0.7384 high. 

If price does hold under 0.7275 after a pullback, we are likely going to see EUR/GBP head towards the 0.7014 in the short to medium-term.