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USD/JPY Breaking above 102 and June's Trendline

The 4H USD/JPY chart shows a pair that is breaking above a falling trendline that connects June's high of 102.80 with July's high of 102.26. The market is thus challenging the prevailing bearish trend.

USD/JPY 4H Chart 7/29

As price tags 102 and the 4H RSI gives us a bearish divergence, we should anticipate some pullback. If price then can stay above 101.60, even if it briefly breaks the latest rising trendline, the bullish outlook should still be in play. A break below 101.50 however looks like it would refocus price action toward the 101.10 lows in the July and then the 100.75 low on the year.

If the 101.60 level holds, the upside is toward 102.26. We should limit the bullish outlook for now because the mode seen in the daily chart is sideways/bearish, within a descending triangle. For the bullish outlook to be liberated out of the short-term, we need to see a break above the trendline that connects the 2014-high of 105.44 with the April high of 104.13. 

USD/JPY Daily Chart 7/29

There is Consumer confidence data today (7/29). Tomorrow (7/30), things turn up with ADP employment change, Advanced GDP (Q2) Estimate, and the FOMC decision. The Thursday (7/31) session has jobless claims data. The week wraps up with Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report and ISM Manufacturing PMI data. 

After a key week like this, a breakout of the triangle resistance would be a strong signal for bullish outlook to 103 and 104-104.13. On the other hand, inability to break out of the triangle this week would maintain focus to the triangle support in the 100.75-101.10 area.