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Fogo de Chao (FOGO) Q1 Earnings: Is a Surprise in Store?

Fogo de Chao, Inc. FOGO is set to report its first-quarter results on May 10 after the market closes. This will mark the leading Brazilian steakhouse’s fourth quarterly earnings release since it began trading on Nasdaq in Jun 2015.

Last quarter, the company had posted in-line results bringing the trailing four-quarter average to 25.93%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.   

Factors to Consider

Fogo de Chao specializes in fire-roasting high-quality meats, using the centuries old Southern Brazilian cooking technique of churrasco. Servers walk around with several varieties of meat — beef, lamb, chicken, pork and seafood — to suit the palate of the diners. The company’s unique South American style of cooking on an open flame has helped it gain enormous popularity.

The top line in the first quarter should benefit from initiatives like menu innovation, marketing through various channels, re-imaging of restaurants and unit expansion efforts. However, foreign currency fluctuations could continue to hurt revenues.

In fiscal 2016, total revenue is expected in a range of $293 million to $297 million. Comparable restaurant sales are estimated to increase 1%–2%.

Meanwhile, higher labor costs and costs related to sales initiatives are projected to keep first quarter profits under pressure.

Restaurant contribution margin is anticipated in a range of 31.0% to 31.5% in fiscal 2016.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Fogo de Chao is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP stands at 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 24 cents.  

Zacks Rank: Fogo de Chao has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few companies in the restaurant industry which, as per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. PLAY, with an Earnings ESP of +3.39% and a Zacks Rank #1.

The Wendy's Company WEN, with an Earnings ESP of +16.67% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. RRGB, with an Earnings ESP of +0.91% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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RED ROBIN GOURM (RRGB): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
WENDYS CO/THE (WEN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
DAVE&BUSTRS ENT (PLAY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
FOGO DE CHAO (FOGO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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