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EUR/JPY Holding under the 200-day SMA

The EUR/JPY has been in a sideways and slightly bearish market in 2014. Price has drifted below the 200-day moving average and has held below it in June. The 139 handle is turning out to be a key resistance. Price this week respected the 200SMA and 139 and looks poise to continue toward the low on the year at 136.23. Also note that EUR/JPY is trading at a falling trendline from May.

(eurjpy daily chart, 6/26)

The 4H chart shows that the EUR/JPY has been consolidating between 138.28 and 138.92. It also shows that price held under the 200-4H SMA. A break below 138.25 would be a bearish continuation signal, with 137.75 low exposed in the near-term.

(eurjpy 4h chart, 6/26)

A break above 139 opens up the June highs around 140. However, since the market is still bearish, we should anticipate a high below that June high at 140.10.