Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

EUR/JPY in a Key Juncture after a Breakout

EUR/JPY has been bearish at least since mid-August. The 4H chart shows the swing down to 132.22 last week. This week, price action has been bullish so far, pushing to 135.19 today without any signs of stopping the rally yet. 

EUR/JPY 4H Chart 9/9
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart also shows that EUR/JPY has broken above its 50-period simple moving average (SMA) and a falling speedline. The RSI is also cracking 60. This shows that the prevailing downtrend is losing the momentum and bias. Still, the breakout is not clear yet, and the 135.19 pivot was a previous support which could turn into resistance. 

I think the EUR/JPY is going to meet some resistance here, with some room up to 136.00. I would look for the market to flatten here and expect a bearish attempt towards the 133.50-134 area. The 135.50-136 area involves a common price level in the end-of-August consolidation. It is also where the 100-period SMA resides. 

A break above 136 for me would be a strong signal that bulls have taken over (The 50-, 100-, and 100-day SMA reside around 136. Then, I would consider the buy-on-a-dip strategy. But for now, I am still anticipating resistance, staying in-line with the prevailing trend in the short to medium-term (since June).

EUR/JPY Daily Chart 9/9

(click to enlarge)