Zikril Hakim
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DAILY ANALYSIS for 25.03, 2014

Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The euro exchange rate rose sharply against the dollar, returning almost all the ground lost during today's trading. Impact on the dynamics of the U.S. data, as well as the statements of the ECB's Draghi . Report from the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence index has improved markedly in March, while offsetting the decline in February. The index now stands at 82.3 points, compared to 78.3 points in February. Present situation index fell to 80.4 points from 81.0 points, while the expectations index rose to 83.5 from 76.5. Meanwhile, it became known that the assessment of current conditions consumers almost unchanged in March - the proportion of those who reported improvement of business conditions rose to 22.9 % from 21.2 %, while those who reported worsening , has risen to 23.2 % from 22.0 % . Estimation by consumers of the labor market was relatively unchanged - the proportion of those who said about improving conditions, decreased to 13.1 % from 13.4 %, and is reported to decline increased to 33.0 % from 32.4 %.

As for Draghi speech, he noted that the ECB will do everything necessary to maintain price stability. Perhaps he hinted at HTA program aimed at helping vulnerable members of the eurozone by buying their government bonds, which was proposed in the fall of 2012, but did not work. He also said that the soft policy will support the gradual elimination of the lag in economic growth. According to him, there were visible signs that monetary policy becomes more effective. Draghi also spoke about the euro, noting that the strengthening of the euro caused by external factors, including the Japanese monetary policy, as well as increased confidence in the eurozone. Furthermore, he added that the ECB is closely monitoring the situation with the exchange rate. The EUR / USD pair traded in the range of $ 1.37570-1.38550 during the European session.

British Pound: The British pound rose against the dollar, which was helped by data on inflation in Britain and weak U.S. data. In the UK inflation slowed in February, as expected, to a four-year low due to lower transport prices showed Tuesday, official data Office for National Statistics. Consumer prices rose 1.7 % year -on-year after increasing 1.9 % in January. Growth rates in line with economists' expectations. On a monthly measurement of consumer prices rose by 0.5 %, according to the forecast, offsetting a drop of 0.6 % in January. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes prices of energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, rose to 1.7 % from 1.6 %. The GBP / USD pair traded in the range of $ 1.65310 during the European session.


U.S. Dollar: Meanwhile, U.S. data showed that new home sales fell in February, becoming the latest sign that the severe weather conditions and rising mortgage rates undermine the housing market recovery. The Ministry of Commerce said that the sales of newly built homes fell 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000 compared with the previous month. Strong growth in January was revised downward to an annual rate of 455,000. Data on sales of new buildings represent a small portion of the homes purchased in the United States and may be subject to significant revisions. But they provide more current sensor market conditions than some other figures, because they are calculated at the time of signing the contract, and not when it is closed. February sales were lower than expected by economists and 447,000 were at the lowest level since September.

Gold:Also the cost of Gold increased due to short covering and increase reserves backed by gold exchange funds. The cost of April gold futures rose to $ 1312.40 per ounce on the COMEX today.

Oil: Oil prices rose slightly, due to concerns about further decline in production in Libya and hopes for economic stimulus measures in China. May futures for U.S. light crude oil WTI rose to $ 100.10 per barrel on the NYMEX.