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EUR/USD - Just Wait, It's Going to Happen

EUR/USD has been trading in a low volatility consolidation. The silence can lull you to sleep and before you know it, a big move will have put this month long coiling out of sight. 

EUR/USD 4H Chart 2/26

(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows the market consolidating in a narrow range, essentially between 1.13 and 1.14 this week. The larger rane is between 1.11 and 1.15. Now, with support around 1.1270 holding for so many times, a break should be a very strong indication of bearish continuation at least to test the 1.11 low on the year. 

To the upside ,a break above 1.14 might introduce some volatility and put pressure on the 1.15-1.1530 area. A break above 1.1550 then establishes February's price action as a price bottom and open sup a bullish outlook. First there will be resistance around 1.17, a previous resistance pivot. If price can start holding above 1.1450, we should have more confidence about the bullish outlook at least for the short, short/medium-term. (another month or so of consolidation/bullish correction).

My bias is to the downside because we know the trend has been bearish. The 4H price action is still under the 200-period SMA. The ECB and Fed have divergent policy stance, with ECB implementing stimulus while the Fed plans to raise rates in 2015.