Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

Forex Recap: Risk-on Trading Continues and JPY Remains Pressured

There is a continuing risk-on theme this week. You can see this evidenced by a rally in the S&P500 so far that is pushing the equity index toward the record highs. The 4H chart shows a resistance area at this record high, between 1883.5 and 1888.6. 

(S&P500 4H chart)

The 4H chart also shows the stochastic over 80 and thus overbought in this time-frame. Anticipate some pullback as the market pushes higher. There is still the key US NFP on Friday before which the market will likely temper its risk-appetite.

Just like during the 3/31 session, the risk appetite corresponded with weakness in the JPY.

The USD/JPY extended a rally that started last week. It is now about to test the March high at 103.75. There is overbought condition, and the market in the 4H chart is still sideways since late January. With key event risk ahead on Friday, it will be tough to break through 103.75 and extend without a meaningful pullback.

(USD/JPy 4H chart 4/1)

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also extended their rallies from last week. You can see that both are pushing toward their March highs, where I believe the market will be a little choppy going into Friday's US NFP report.

(EUR/JPY 4H chart 4/1)

(GBP/JPY 4H chart 4/1)

AUD/JPY has been on a tear since mid-March, mainly thanks to a strong AUD. This rally is in the context of a bullish development since February.

(AUD/JPY 4H chart)

The 4H chart shows the AUD/JPY in a rising channel. As price nears 96.00, it is about to test the channel resistance. A break below 95.35, today's low, would suggest some bearish correction. Otherwise, the market remains bullish, with no signs of topping in the 4H chart.