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NZD/CHF - Coiling Should be Over Soon; Bullish Bias

The NZD/CHF pair has been consolidating since late March. The structure is that of a triangle, coiling with lower and lower volatility. This reflects indecision. The 4H chart still shows higher highs and higher lows as a bullish pattern since February.


(nzdchf 4h chart, 4/21)

The prevailing trend is bullish in the 4H chart, and neutral to bullish in the Daily chart. In the daily chart, the RSI has shown bullish momentum since September 2013 albeit a bit choppy. Price has also crossed and stayed above the moving averages in the daily chart. 


(nzdchf daily chart, 4/21)

Rising channel, moving averages:
If we look at the channel in the daily chart as a bullish pattern, then there is still some downside risk toward the channel support, as well as the 200 and 100 day MAs reside - around 0.7480. 

So far, the market has stayed above the support/resistance pivot area around 0.7530, so a bullish market might not even see a bearish swing to test the channel support.

Bullish outlook:
The bullish outlook however has to be limited to 0.7730, which is this year's high, but also represents resistance for a consolidation that has been developing for about 11 months since May 2013. A break above that high builds on a longer term bullish outlook, perhaps for the rest of the year, or until a test of the 2013-high around 0.8080.