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Tesoro (TSO) to Report Q1 Earnings: Can Stock Surprise?

Tesoro Corporation TSO is set to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 4, after the closing bell.

Last quarter, Tesoro posted a negative earnings surprise of 11.59%. Moreover, for the last four quarters, the company’s average negative surprise was 2.28%.  



Factors to Consider this Quarter

Tesoro − one the largest independent oil refiners in the U.S. − generates earnings mostly by selling refined petroleum products that it produces by processing raw crude. Hence, the company’s business is negatively correlated with crude price, which makes up the input cost.  

For the most of the first quarter, crude traded below $40 per barrel. Most importantly, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to the 12-year low mark in mid February. This weakness was owing to plentiful supply of the commodity and weak global demand.

As a result, we can say that the business scenario during the entire quarter was favorable for the company as input cost was significantly low. On top of this, we should also note that the company expects throughput volume of 775–820 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d) for the first quarter that can be higher than 807 MBbl/d in the prior quarter.

Let’s see whether the favorable fundamentals translate into an earnings beat in the first quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Tesoro is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1.03, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.       

Zacks Rank: Tesoro carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) which increases the predictive power of ESP. But a 0.00% ESP makes our surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zack Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies that have the right combination of ingredients to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Hercules Offshore, Inc. HERO has an Earnings ESP of +15.24% and a Zacks Rank #3.

DCP Midstream Partners LP DPM with an Earnings ESP of +9.52% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

NGL Energy Partners LP NGL with an Earnings ESP of +1.96% and a Zacks Rank #2.    

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report >>


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
TESORO CORP (TSO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
HERCULES OFFSHR (HERO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
DCP MIDSTREAM (DPM): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
NGL ENERGY PART (NGL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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