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EUR/USD Retreats after Failure to Breach 1.37; Monitor Trendline Support

The EUR/USD has been bullish the second half of June. After breaking above the 1.3676 high on the month, the pair stalled just under 1.37 to start the July month. It is falling today after the ADP non-farm employment change reading beat forecasts. This hints at a NFP reading tomorrow that will be in-line or better than estimates, which should help the USD pare some of its recent losses.

(eurusd 4h chart, 7/2)

Note the cluster of moving averages roughly within that 1.36-1.3620 area. This will be the area to watch for tomorrow.If the pair falls below that June trendline and below the 1.36 handle, a bearish continuation scenario should be in play at least for the short-term to challenge the 1.35 handle and the 1.3476 low on the year. If it can hold above 1.3620, the bullish outlook should remain intact.